One of the finest political authors and analysts is Kevin Phillips, most recently the author of Wealth and Democracy: Political History of the American Rich. He goes back and forth with The Atlantic's James Fallows in an e-mail exchange:

The Democrats have for some years now had a large slice of the richest Americans who make their money from high tech, the media, entertainment, and, increasingly, finance. Could they lose some of the Jewish portion of this "high end" support to the Republicans because of Bush's pro-Israel position? Yes, but if something resembling World War Three starts in the Middle East in 2002 or 2003, the backlash against Bush's regional policies could be powerful. The Bible Belt may be willing to go in Armageddon's way, but I wouldn't be so sure about Colorado, Illinois, or New Jersey.
http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/fallows/jf2002-07-03/phillips1.htm

Also see: Phillips on being FDR for a day:
http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/fallows/jf2002-07-03/phillips3.htm
And, from The New Republic, an emerging Democratic majority?
http://www.thenewrepublic.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020805&s=judis080502